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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.