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Initially, Trump seemed to adopt a resolute stance regarding Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "significant ramifications" during the summer should Vladimir Putin continued blocking truce discussions, the former president eventually enacted considerable penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially affected Putin's capacity to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the plan effectively undermine that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president persists to view the war as a basic land disagreement, implying giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about occupying a damaged swath of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in position the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would force Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

This region is the location of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a essential obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open route to the capital if he later decide to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would enable future hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its military from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the proposal declares: "Every extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and forbidden." As if to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached comparable accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied areas in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community trust Putin this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "decisive joint military response" if Russia renew its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the specifics range from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying forces on the nation's land, thereby preventing the reassurance force, presumptively headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Concern

Another side agreement apparently would provide the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. Yet unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's primary defense against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of Western powers, like the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not