Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
