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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. But overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.